bread and peace model 2012 pdf Tuesday, May 11, 2021 11:12:49 PM

Bread And Peace Model 2012 Pdf

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Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model

Abramowitz A. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Where can I find the unemployment rate for previous years? Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. Government Social Benefits.

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According to the Bread and Peace Model post- war, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on.


Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

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This paper aims at determining the various economic and non-economic factors that can influence the voting behaviour in the forthcoming United States Presidential Election using Lasso regression, a Machine learning algorithm. Even though contemporary discussions on the subject of the United States Presidential Election suggest that the level of unemployment in the economy will be a significant factor in determining the result of the election, in our study, it has been found that the rate of unemployment will not be the only significant factor in forecasting the election. However, various other economic factors such as the inflation rate, rate of economic growth, and exchange rates will not have a significant influence on the election result. The June Gallup Rating, is not the only significant factor for determining the result of the forthcoming presidential election. In addition to the June Gallup Rating, various other non-economic factors such as the performance of the contesting political parties in the midterm elections, Campaign spending by the contesting parties and scandals of the Incumbent President will also play a significant role in determining the result of the forthcoming United States Presidential Election.

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Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud. We propose a model of electoral competition where, although some voters oppose violence, it is effective in intimidating swing voters. We show that in equilibrium a weak challenger will use violence, which corresponds to a terrorism strategy.

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Skip to search form Skip to main content You are currently offline. Some features of the site may not work correctly. DOI: According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. View PDF. Save to Library. Create Alert.

The paper analyses economic and non-economic factors in order to develop a forecasting model for US Presidential election and predict it. The discussions on forthcoming US Presidential election mention that campaign fund amount and unemployment will be a deciding factor in the election, but our research indicates that campaign fund amount and unemployment are not significant factors for predicting the vote share of the incumbent party. But in case of non—incumbent major opposition party challenger party campaign fund amount does play a role. Growth of economy is found to be significant factor for non-incumbent major opposition party and not for incumbent party. Abramowitz A. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Post-Soviet African democratization has introduced elections into contexts that often lack restraints upon the behavior of candidates, resulting in the emergence of voter intimidation, vote-buying, and ballot fraud. We propose a model of electoral competition where, although some voters oppose violence, it is effective in intimidating swing voters. We show that in equilibrium a weak challenger will use violence, which corresponds to a terrorism strategy. Similarly, a nationally weak incumbent will use repression. However, a stronger incumbent facing local competition will prefer to use bribery or ballot fraud. We discuss the applicability of the model to several African elections.

Bread, peace and the attrition of power : economic events and German election results

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Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

2 Comments

Steffen G. 20.05.2021 at 05:13

PDF | President Obama received approximately % of the two-party vote in the election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of.

Asael V. 21.05.2021 at 12:58

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